What are other people
doing?
The existing models in
the area of sustainable development represent the historical conceptualisation
of sustainability starting from environmental constraints and
moving towards
economic valuation and social behaviour and policies. We have witnessed the
establishment of a highly complex, vibrant and holistic new area of
scientific
endeavour which will be bringing together scholarship and practice shaping human
understanding, behaviour, innovation, decisionmaking and actions in the years
to come. This science is still in the process of defining and developing its
analytic and scientific underpinning, approach, tools, objectives, aims and
tasks.
A major part of the
efforts to further knowledge in this area has been the application of
computerbased models that attempt to capture mainly environmental and
economic
aspects of the sustainability imperatives, such as computable
general equilibrium, econometric, optimisation and hybrid models or emissions
and land use models
(J. O’Doherty, K. Mayor, R.S.J. Tol). They all rely on the availability of data as
well as on methodologies for valuation of the environment informed by recent
developments
in economics. What is apparent is the lack of a new approach to
handling what S.Dovers describes as «the
fundamental, structural inconsistencies between natural and
human systems. The
causes of sustainability problems lie deep in patterns of consumption and
production, settlement and governance» that any modeling, be it boosted
by
the unprecedented computer power, so far has left untouched.
The scale and time
dimensions of the current sustainability problems are unprecedented in at least
three aspects: firstly, never before has humanity experienced
such profound
effects from globalisation; secondly, the importance of the humanmade
world and the laws that govern it, such as the market mechanisms, has grown to
become comparable to that of the natural systems; and thirdly, the tools that
society and science have developed to handle policy formulation,
decisionmaking and
governance (mainly informed by disciplinebased assessment
methodologies) have been focused on the short to medium term and therefore
inadequate from an
intergenerational sustainability perspective. A new area of
research, namely sustainometrics, is emerging charged with the task to model
and measure sustainability
[45, 46, 47], but the required new scientific
approaches, tools and methodologies are still in their infancy. Sustainometrics
represents a way to describe the interconnectedness
of five domains of human
activity -- environmental, socio-cultural, technological, economics, and public
policy -- and their interplay with regard to achieving the goals
of sustainability.
Taken together, the five domains of sustainometrics can guide holistic
solutions balancing human needs with the depletion of natural resources.
Тhere are five major categories of models, used for the representation and study of
sustainable development. Notably:
- quantitative models
(including mathematical, statistical, databased, econometric and computer
simulation),
- pictorial visualisation
(including the Venn diagram, graphic representation, pictures and drawings),
- conceptual models
(representing particular concepts and theories),
- standardising models
(including indicators, benchmark values and targets) and
- physical models (a
smaller or larger physical version of the object/system that allows
visualisation and further investigation).
Pictorial Visualization Models is described by A.M.
Hasna, P.M. Boulanger, T. Bréchet, D. Marinova, N. McGrath,
J.G.Speth at alias. Description: Venn diagrams,
flow charts, drawings.
Positive: Basic, simple and powerful of reaching a broad audience. Emphasise the
need for transdisciplinarity. Negative: Static models; with
limited informative
value.
Quantitative Models is described by
P.M. Boulanger, T. Bréchet, S. Faucheux, D. Pearce,
J. Proops, S. Lyons, R.S.J. Tol, J. O’Doherty,
K. Mayor, L.A. Andriantiatsaholiniaina, V.S. Kouikoglou,
Y.A. Phillis, J. Scheffran. Description: Based on mathematics,
statistics and system analysis. Created in
econometrics, sociometrics,
biometrics, they systematize, measure, compare, represent various aspects of
sustainable development. Range of application:
macro-econometric models, system
dynamics models; general equilibrium models, Bayesian network models; optimization
models, multi-agent simulation models. Positive:
More informative, accurate and
potentially powerful for analysis and forecasting. Support policy-making.
Negative: Restricted models. They remain discipline-dominated.
Physical Models is described by D. Hellström, U.
Jeppsson, E. Kärrman, C.D. Levings, S. Karlsson. Description: Based on creation
and/or recreation of various
ecosystems
- water, energy, buildings and urban design, handling of pollution and waste,
recreation of habitat including industrial ecology, toxicity. They are used
mainly
for environmental components. Positive: Realistic, reduce uncertainty. Allow
for a participatory approach and interdisciplinary perspectives. Negative: Very
specific
and predominantly local models. Their time span is quite restricted.
Conceptual Models is described by D. Meadows,
D.L. Meadows, J. Randers, W. Behrens, R.P. Turco,
O.B. Toon, T.P. Ackerman, J.B. Pollack, C. Sagan,
K.T. Litfin, J.G. Speth, R. Costanza, L. Wainger, C. Folke,
KG. Mäler, S. Begley. Description: Very popular. Based on scenarios.
Often narrative. They are linked to
humanity’s waking up to the limits of its
natural environment and negative impacts: The work of the Club of Rome,
«Nuclear winter», Various futuristic scenarios . Positive:
Long-term and
inter-generational perspective. Cross the borders of many disciplines.
Evolutionary concept. Contain some warning elements. Negative: Emphasis on the
global, local concrete solutions rare. Often linked with political agendas.
Ideologically laden. Inability to manage uncertainty.
Standardising Models described by M. Hart,
T. Jackson, P. Roberts, A.C. Brooks, W. Rees, S. Bell,
S. Morse, E. Yunis. Description: Based on development and
application
of sustainability indicators. An area of active research and practice that has
received a lot of attention. Variety of lists and descriptions, UN list of
Sustainable Development Indicators,
Various sets applicable at community, corporate, national, state or local
government level, Gross national happiness. Positive: Attempt
to develop a
holistic or aggregate indicator to measure sustainability. Assign a value that
describes complexity signal current issues. Negative: Accommodate a very
specific local–global perspective. A good snapshot for the particular moment.
Based on individual trends.
At the end of the 20th
century in a majority of countries in the world, successful resolution of
social-economic, political, demographic and ecological problems was
largely
dependent on the protection of population and engineering-economic objects from
natural disasters and the ensuring conditions for their sustainable
development.
These problems are most acute in mountainous regions, like
Georgia, where unplanned development of natural ecosystems results in drastic
consequences. It is
therefore necessary to understand not only the probability
of changing conditions (natural as well as political and demographic), but also
the probability of the
resulting economic losses.
In 1996, pursuant to
Order №763 of the President of Georgia, the National Commission for Sustainable Development of Georgia was
founded. The primary objective of
the Commission was to develop the strategy
for sustainable development of Georgia. Despite the requirements specified by
the Georgian legislation of 1996, no strategy
for sustainable development has
been elaborated up to date.
It should also be noted
that according to the Law on Environmental Protection, rules governing the
development and time-frame of the country’s strategy for
sustainable development, its national environmental
action program and its regional, local and sectoral environmental programs,
have be specified by the Georgian
legislation. The same applies to
environmental management plans for enterprises. However, so far these rules
have not been specified by the Georgian legislation either.
Georgia
as a developing country has a great diversity of
ecological, social, and economic settings, each with highly specific
peculiarities. There will never be
enough intensive long-term scientific
research on sustainable technology to meet all needs of the country. The
research that is done on new technologies has historically
tended to benefit
rather small and privileged groups, and the long term effects on social and
ecological sustainability, even of a technically beneficial innovation, can
still be negative.
Zurab
Davitashvili, Koba Arabuli, Niko Beruchashvili, Dali Nikolaishvili et al. are
the leading Georgian scientists and specialists in the Sustainable
Development.
How are their results
being applied?
Invention and innovation
have proven to be crucial components for the development of modern societies.
However, 1.3 billion people who currently live on less
than a dollar a day do
not enjoy the benefits that many modern inventions have brought. At the same time
some key new technologies are known to have caused
enormous damage to the global
environment.
Sustainable development
is the practice of protecting the environment while improving living standards
for all, and invention and innovation is key to its
success. Invention and
innovation for sustainable development isn’t just about developing new
technology, but includes new processes and new ways of solving
old
problems—creative thinking is the dependable guide book.
Despite the fact that
people everywhere have an innate ability to be creative, rich countries are not
doing enough to stimulate and harness invention and creative
thinking, and poor
countries tend to stifle innovation and creativity outright. This is typically
due to a combination of factors: insufficient financial resources, lack of role
models, education systems that don’t inspire or value creativity, and
social/political environments that discourage creativity, invention and entrepreneurship.
Innovation to help
achieve the goals of sustainable development can start in many ways, including:
“copy-catting” (i.e. Japan, Korea and China first
mimicking manufacturing
techniques and then becoming world leaders.); “piggy-backing” (i.e. India performing
service work for rich countries and adapting
information technology to local needs);
and “leap-frogging” (skipping over technologies that are inappropriate in a
given place and time and adopting more
sustainable solutions).
The
models of sustainable development are designed to find the most optimal
solutions for achieving such development, notably for protecting the environment
while improving the
living standards for all.
Practical application of
mathematical modeling in sustainable development is the key to solving problems
such as: aagriculture, atmosphere, biodiversity,
desertification and drought, energy, forests, freshwater, land management,
mountains, oceans and coastal areas, toxic chemicals, waste and hazardous
materials etc.
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